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Vandaag is het 20 June 2018

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Infected? - math puzzle

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Suppose that 1 out of 1000 people of a specific country are infected with the deadly X-virus. An inhabitant of that country goes the hospital and gives some blood for a survey. Her blood is checked on the X-virus by a test which gives a correct outcome in 99% of the cases. The test points out that the woman is infected. After the investigation, a doctor tells the woman that he is 99% sure that she is infected with the X-virus. Can the doctor be right by making this worrying statement? spuit

Answer

The doctor is not right, he has no ground on making the woman feel so uncomfortable. The probablility that the woman really is infected is only 9.0%.